As investors, we all appreciate a bit of good fortune. But while luck may play a role in short-term outcomes, it is not a repeatable or sustainable investment strategy. Sound investing relies on process, discipline, and consistency, not chance. Over time, portfolios built on well-reasoned fundamentals, thoughtful diversification, and alignment with long-term goals are the ones that endure market volatility. Relying on luck, by contrast, often feels rewarding in the moment but tends to produce unpredictable — and ultimately disappointing — results.
I must confess that I love puzzles and word games, mostly delivered through my annual NYT Games subscription. After the daily crossword puzzle, the popular game Wordle is my favorite. I enjoy the challenge of trying to guess each day’s five-letter word in the least amount of tries. But, as someone who is process oriented, I also enjoy seeing how I stack up against others and whether I’m using an efficient process to solve the daily Wordle. That’s where the Wordle Bot comes into play. The analytical Wordle Bot evaluates each puzzle after completion. The Bot doesn’t guess randomly; it applies probability, logic, and pattern recognition to optimize each move. Players who rely purely on instinct may occasionally solve the puzzle in two guesses, but over time, the Bot’s methodical approach yields consistently better results. Each day, the Wordle Bot provides feedback (as shown on the right) on how skillful or lucky I was, and provides tips on how to be more skillful in the future. I pride myself on getting above average skill scores and below average luck scores, even if it takes me more steps than average to solve. To me, that’s proof that my solving process is built for long-term success even if it takes me longer than average to solve the Wordle a few times each week.
Investing works much the same way. Some investors chase “hot tips” or time the market based on hunches, hoping luck will favor them. Others, like the Wordle Bot, follow a structured process grounded in research and probability, understanding that skill, not guesswork, compounds advantage over time.
As you know, at RTD, we emphasize process-driven investing. We recognize that markets are unpredictable in the short run, and attempting to forecast every movement is a futile exercise. Instead, we focus on building portfolios that are resilient across economic cycles by diversifying across asset classes, sectors, and geographies to mitigate risk while seeking consistent, long-term returns. This disciplined framework is designed to help us navigate volatility with confidence rather than reacting emotionally to short-term events. Much like solving Wordle efficiently, success in investing is about making informed, data-driven decisions — one step at a time — based on probabilities, not luck.
The real power of a thoughtful investment process lies in its repeatability. Luck may strike once, but a sound strategy can be applied again and again, adapting as conditions change. When investors stay committed to their long-term objectives, rebalance prudently, and remain tax-aware, they give themselves the best chance of consistent success. In investing, as in Wordle, it’s not about guessing the right answer today — it’s about having a refined approach, so you have the best chance to get it right over the long term. At the end of the day, luck feels exciting, but discipline builds wealth.
RTD Financial Advisors, Inc (“RTD”) is a SEC registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only intended for a broad audience. The information does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed. RTD has reasonable belief that this marketing does not include any false or material misleading statements or omissions of facts regarding services, investment, or client experience. RTD has reasonable belief that the content as a whole will not cause an untrue or misleading implication regarding the adviser’s services, investments, or client experiences. RTD has presented information in a fair and balanced manner. RTD is not giving tax, legal or accounting advice, consult a professional tax or legal representative if needed.